The launch of an Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) tied to current Bitcoin value can be a game-changer for the crypto industry, and we might see it happening soon.
From the chances of approval being around just 1% a couple of months ago, the chances of approval for the first spot Bitcoin ETF have jumped to a massive 65%. Will we see BlackRock’s refiling come to fruition soon? If so, when will that be? Let’s dive in.
Analysts Anticipate Good News Regarding Spot Bitcoin ETF Filings
Analysts at Bloomberg Intelligence, namely James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas, recently made a statement regarding their opinion on the chances of approval for a Bitcoin ETF.
The experts now believe there’s a 65% likelihood of this happening, up from their previous estimation of 50%.
According to them, several developments in the crypto industry and refilings by the likes of BlackRock have increased the odds of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) giving the go-ahead.
Several Key Players Are Involved
BlackRock isn’t the only entity in this space. Besides the world’s largest investment manager, peers like Fidelity, WisdomTree, and Valkyrie have filed applications to get approval for a spot Bitcoin ETF.
The SEC has been notorious for its rejection of any such applications for several years. That said, several experts believe the securities watchdog will change its tune soon. The SEC’s approval might just be on the horizon, especially for BlackRock’s filing, considering the SEC rarely denies its ETF applications.
BlackRock’s Influence & Changing Sentiments
The growing optimism is heavily linked to BlackRock’s track record. The financial giant has been a forerunner for many ETF approvals in the past. Another factor contributing to the rising confidence is the SEC’s Chairman himself.
In a recent Bloomberg interview, Gary Gensler downplayed his role there, insisting four other commissioners can be asked about crypto-related matters. His deflection of the question implies the possibility of holding on to anti-crypto sentiments might no longer be a good position for Gensler.
Coinbase’s Role In The Equation & Remaining Concerns
The SEC’s approval for Coinbase’s Bitcoin trading platform can play a critical role for approval chances. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong has been told to delist all cryptocurrencies barring Bitcoin.
This development solidifies the Bloomberg analysts’ view. Seyffart and Balchunas believe approving a spot Bitcoin ETF is the likeliest place where the SEC will bend on crypto ETFs.
However, their opinion should be taken with a pinch of salt. Gensler still has his concerns and holds on to skepticism regarding the possibility of market manipulation, fraud, and abuse.
This is where crypto asset manager, Grayscale’s case against the SEC can play a role. Last year, the SEC turned down Grayscale’s request to turn the largest Bitcoin trust into an ETF. This spurred the asset manager to sue the SEC.
Analysts expect Grayscale to win the case. If that happens, it can open the floodgates for spot Bitcoin ETF approvals. After all, the easiest move for the securities watchdog would be to approve outstanding applications.
The timeline for approval is unclear due to several what-ifs involved in the decision-making process. As the next few weeks unfold, Black Book Crypto will keep a close eye on the spot Bitcoin ETF saga and update you as the next chapter unfolds.